Zero to One

Two Kinds of Progress

When was the last time you saw something completely new? Most of what we call progress is an improved copy of something old.

There are two types of progress.

Horizontal progress means going from 1 to n. You copy ideas that already work and spread them further.

Vertical progress means going from 0 to 1. You create something entirely new that nobody has done before.

Both are real progress, but they are very different jobs.

Horizontal Progress: 1 to n

Picture one typewriter. Now build 100 more just like it.

Notice that every copy on the right matches the original on the left, so the number grows while the kind of thing stays the same.

That is horizontal progress. You take something that works and make more of it, or bring it to new places.

It is easy to imagine because we already know what it looks like.

The result is more of the same thing. The world gains copies, yet nothing new has been added to what people can do.

Vertical Progress: 0 to 1

Now picture going from typewriters to word processors.

That is vertical progress. Nothing like it existed before, so there was nothing to copy.

An early word processor: a new kind of machine, not a better typewriter

It is harder to imagine because it requires doing something nobody else has ever done.

You cannot see the answer in advance. You have to create it.

This jump from zero to one is what we call technology: creating new things.

Globalization vs Technology

Each kind of progress has a big-picture name.

Globalization is horizontal progress. It spreads existing things to more people and places.

Technology is vertical progress. It creates new things that did not exist before.

Technology matters more for genuine value creation. It is the only way to create genuinely more value, since spreading copies only shares what already exists.

We Cannot Copy Our Way to Prosperity

Imagine a world that only copies. Every country adopts the tools that already exist, and nothing new gets invented.

That path runs out. Globalization without new technology is unsustainable.

Copying spreads what we have, but it does not grow the total. We cannot copy our way to prosperity.

So the challenge of the future is to create new technology, rather than only spread existing technology.

Spotting 0 to 1 in Your Work

Use one simple test on any project or idea.

Ask: has anyone done this before? If yes, you are copying something that works. That is 1 to n.

If nobody has done it, you may be going from 0 to 1.

The most valuable companies create new technology. Copying lands you in crowded spaces, while creating new things shapes the future.

Taking one typewriter and building 100 more typewriters is an example of _____ progress.

• horizontal
• vertical

Answer: horizontal

Making more copies of something that already works is horizontal progress, going from 1 to n. Nothing fundamentally new is created.

Spreading existing ideas around the world is _____, a form of horizontal progress. Creating new things that never existed before is _____, a form of vertical progress.

Answer: Spreading existing ideas around the world is globalization, a form of horizontal progress. Creating new things that never existed before is technology, a form of vertical progress.

Globalization copies and spreads what already works (1 to n). Technology creates something entirely new (0 to 1).

Which example is vertical (0 to 1) progress?

• Inventing a product no one has ever made before
• Opening 500 more copies of a successful restaurant
• Launching a clone of a popular app in a new country
• Shipping an existing phone model to new markets

Answer: Inventing a product no one has ever made before

Only inventing a product that never existed creates something entirely new. Opening more stores, copying a successful app, and shipping existing goods overseas all spread things that already work. Those are horizontal progress.